Dear Readers of my Weekly Reports,
The ethanol market is growing rapidly. Ethanol futures surged last week—climbing above their highest level since October 2023—as global demand for biofuels continues to rise. Many governments are increasingly promoting plant-based fuels to support the agricultural sector, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and address climate concerns. The energy shock associated with a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz has heightened this sense of urgency, with biofuels viewed as a means to stretch fuel supplies by blending them with gasoline and diesel. Since the onset of the conflict involving Iran, major producers such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil have moved to increase their biofuel blending mandates in an effort to reduce import dependency. Brazil, the world’s second-largest ethanol producer, plans to raise its gasoline-ethanol blend ratio from 30% to 32% in order to curb domestic fuel prices and inflation, and potentially to eliminate gasoline imports entirely. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn-based ethanol has received regulatory approval for maritime use, thereby strengthening its position within global biofuel markets.
Ethanol is produced primarily through the fermentation of starch- or sugar-based feedstocks. In the United States, corn serves as the primary feedstock, whereas in Brazil, sugarcane is widely utilized as the raw material for ethanol production. In the United States, ethanol futures are available for trading on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT®). The market prices displayed on Trading Economics are based on Over-the-Counter (OTC) instruments and Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The European ethanol market is evolving into a crucial bridge between the volatile commodity markets (specifically wheat, corn, and sugar beets) and the gasoline market. The use of ethanol—which is derived from agricultural crops and blended with gasoline—reduces the volume of purely fossil-based gasoline by adding a biocomponent to the finished fuel.
The United States has emerged as a significant exporter of ethanol to the United Kingdom and to Europe as a whole. According to recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), exports of fuel ethanol rose by approximately 24% overall during the twelve-month period ending in October 2025. Exports to the EU-27 (the 27 member states of the European Union following the United Kingdom’s withdrawal) have nearly doubled year-on-year; this reflects two key regulatory drivers: First, under its Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III), the EU has raised its renewable energy target to at least 42.5% by 2030. Second, many countries have abolished “double-counting” provisions that previously allowed certain “advanced” biofuels to be counted twice toward climate targets. Since 2026, many of these so-called multipliers have been eliminated, leading more countries to now seek out first-generation ethanol products—that is, those based on crops such as corn.
The current situation illustrates this very clearly: In various EU countries, primary energy consumption is declining slightly due to the ongoing economic crisis, while renewable energies are gaining ground. For the agricultural sector, this sends a clear message: the transformation of the energy system is moving forward, albeit not in a linear fashion. Those investing in biofuels today require reliable regulatory frameworks; otherwise, a great deal of potential will go unrealized. The biomethane market demonstrates that vague provisions within the draft Energy Industry Act (EnWG) are stalling multi-billion-euro projects—even though the industry has long possessed the technical and economic capacity to deliver. Regarding “fuels from the field,” a shift in sentiment is becoming apparent. Bioethanol and biofuels are once again being viewed more strongly as integral components of energy security—particularly in light of E20 and the drive to reduce import dependency.
Below is information regarding the 4th International Conference on Renewable Mobility 2027 in Berlin.
The conference “Fuels of the Future” (January 18–19, 2027, Berlin) is Europe’s leading platform for renewable fuels and sustainable mobility. Approximately 700 participants from more than 30 countries—including policymakers, industry leaders, and scientists—will discuss current developments in biofuels, e-fuels, hydrogen, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).
The conference focuses on market-ready solutions, regulatory frameworks, and global trends driving the decarbonization of the transport sector. Experts from industry, academia, and politics are invited to submit contributions on the topics of renewable fuels and sustainable mobility.
Key topics include:
- Biofuels and Feedstocks
- E-fuels and Hydrogen
- Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF)
- Policy Frameworks and Market Development
Submissions can be made at: www.fuels-of-the-future.com Contributions may be submitted until June 2, 2026. Further information can be found in the attachment.
Why Bioeconomy Projects Stall When Models Meet Reality
What appeared feasible in pilot plants often proves fragile when viewed through the lens of reality. This is arguably the most consequential statement in the advanced bioeconomy today—and one that is by no means voiced often enough. Consider, for instance, Clariant’s cellulosic ethanol production facility in Romania, which launched in the second quarter of 2022 only to be shut down in July 2023 following a strategic review. Or take DuPont’s facility in the U.S. When it opened in 2015, it was the largest of its kind in the world: $200 million invested, the technology validated, and the raw materials physically available. It successfully cleared every single project phase. It was built. Two years later, it was closed. The technology worked. The raw materials were available. What failed to hold up, however, was the system linking these two elements: the economic conditions governing raw material procurement, the structure of supply contracts, and the economic viability of the facility itself. This limitation becomes even more critical when sustainability is taken into account. Currently, this is still framed primarily through the lens of emissions metrics. These are important—especially now, when credit eligibility and regulatory approvals depend on them. Yet they fail to fully capture what ultimately determines whether a project will endure. Sustainability is not merely about reducing emissions; it is about whether a project remains viable within the broader systems in which it operates over time—including its alignment with community expectations, regional infrastructure realities, and the regulatory frameworks that are still being written.
The Climate Bonds Initiative announces the release of its revised Bioenergy Criteria. These expand the scope of eligible bioenergy activities to include electricity generation while simultaneously addressing key socio-economic and environmental impacts—ranging from biodiversity, rising energy demand, and water consumption to food security. The updated framework provides investors, industry, and policymakers with a scientifically grounded tool to scale up sustainable investments within the bioenergy sector. Furthermore, the revised criteria shift from a feedstock-agnostic approach to a more precise framework for the eligibility of specific feedstocks, thereby strengthening sustainability safeguards in biomass sourcing. Additionally, the revised criteria offer guidance and best practices for reducing methane emissions across the biogas and biomethane value chain. https://www.climatebonds.net/news-events/press-room/press-releases/climate-bonds-updates-bioenergy-criteria-support-emissions-reduction-transport
The global Waste-to-Energy (WtE) market is projected to reach a value of US$56 billion by 2032. Market growth is primarily driven by the demand for renewable energy, increasingly stringent environmental regulations, growing awareness of environmental issues, and the need for sustainable waste management techniques to remediate damaged ecosystems. The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing the fastest growth. With a compound annual growth rate of 5.1%, this trend—fueled by rapid urbanization and industrial production—is expected to continue for some time. https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/waste-energy-market-size-reach
LanzaTech—a member of the FLITE consortium—has selected North Sea Port in Ghent, Belgium, as the permanent site for Europe’s first commercial-scale facility for the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using the “Alcohol-to-Jet” (ATJ) pathway, utilizing the LanzaJet™ ATJ process. Concurrently, LanzaTech confirmed the imminent submission of the scoping notice for the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) to the Belgian authorities—a significant milestone for risk mitigation as the project advances toward a Final Investment Decision (FID). The FLITE consortium is supported by funding from the EU’s Horizon 2020 program. https://ir.lanzatech.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lanzatech-selects-north-sea-port-ghent-site-europes-first
The British government announced that the country has taken another step on the path toward clean, domestic energy; as part of a significant investment in hydrogen technology in South Yorkshire, over 400 new jobs were announced. ITM Power UK in South Yorkshire has received a $54.1 million investment from “Great British Energy”—the United Kingdom’s state-owned energy company—as well as an in-principle government funding commitment of $62.9 million, to facilitate a major expansion of hydrogen technology manufacturing within the United Kingdom. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hydrogen-investment-fuels-south-yorkshires-next-industrial-era
NTPC has been awarded an Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contract for the construction of India’s first ethanol-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production facility in Andhra Pradesh. Located at NTPC Green Energy’s hydrogen hub in Pudimadaka, the facility will produce approximately 1,800 tons of SAF annually, utilizing ethanol derived from captured CO₂. The project employs technologies from Lummus Technology and Xytel India, covering the entire process from design through commissioning. This marks a pivotal step in scaling up SAF production in India; the project supports the decarbonization of the aviation sector and further expands the country’s green fuel capabilities. https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/gps-renewables
Hapag-Lloyd and Kuehne+Nagel are further expanding their long-standing partnership and, for the first time, collaborating on emissions-reduced solutions for maritime transport. Under this agreement, Kuehne+Nagel will utilize Hapag-Lloyd’s “Ship Green” product to reduce the carbon footprint of its ocean freight shipments. The agreement marks a significant milestone in the relationship between the two companies. For the period from April to December 2026, the agreement covers approximately 3,300 TEU of cargo transported on the trade route from East Asia to Northern Europe. Through the use of certified biofuels derived from waste and residues (SMF), the initiative is expected to save approximately 2,979 tons of CO₂e emissions on a “well-to-wake” basis. https://hansa.news/hapag-lloyd-and-kuhnenagel-launch-biofuel-cooperation/
Rabobank says canola’s role could rise as biofuels target hard‑to‑abate transport sectors, diversifying demand and supporting longer‑term price resilience and altered crop rotations in Australia. Traders can capture value by shifting exports from seed to processed oil amid expanding Asia‑Pacific biofuel capacity and tighter European rules, increasing the need for traceability and stable feedstock supply. Crushers may see improved margins and utilization if oil demand outpaces seed exports, though outcomes depend on seed costs, energy, logistics, policy and by‑product values. Regional mandates and Middle East supply risks may accelerate biofuel policy and investment. https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/q011520105-fueling-the-future-how-the-new-biofuel-demand-wave-could-reshape-australias-canola-sector
Hong Kong-based Venture Energy Limited has entered into an agreement with Shanghai Shenji Energy & Environmental Technology for the purchase of green methanol. According to the report, under this procurement and supply agreement, Venture Energy will source ISCC EU-certified green methanol from Shenji Energy—methanol that is fully compliant with the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED). The delivery and loading of the initial shipment are scheduled for the first half of 2026. In addition to product supply, the partnership encompasses collaboration across the entire value chain—ranging from biogas feedstocks to ISCC certificates for green fuels—the report further notes. https://www.offshore-energy.biz/deal-positions-hong-kong-firm-as-bridge-for-chinas-green-methanol-exports/
An India-based company announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for project development in the fields of biofuels and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), aiming to advance a new generation of projects for converting biomass into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in India. Under the terms of the MOU, the companies will plan and design scalable facilities for converting biomass into SAF, utilizing domestic agricultural residues as feedstock. This collaboration integrates Varhad’s operational gasification platform—which already produces syngas and biochar from agricultural residues—with Velocys’ proven Fischer-Tropsch (FT) technology, thereby enabling a direct and efficient pathway from biomass to SAF. The initial projects will establish a scalable “hub-and-spoke” model for SAF production in India. https://velocys.com/category/uncategorised/
Jet Zero Australia Pty Ltd announced the successful completion of the feasibility study for “Project Mandala.” This marks another milestone in the company’s Australian biorefinery development strategy—following the advanced development of its flagship project, “Project Ulysses,” in Townsville. The latter is a world-leading “Alcohol-to-Jet” (ATJ) biorefinery, currently in the final stages of Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED). https://worldbiomarketinsights.com/jet-zero-australia-completes-feasibility-study-for-sustainable-biorefinery/
In Mexico, demand would increase by 17.8 million liters per year if the country were to adopt the necessary regulations to expand the use of E10. Demand for gasoline—divided into the “Regular” and “Magna” grades—stands at approximately 842,000 barrels per day; however, if a 10% ethanol blend were introduced (and total demand remained unchanged), the requirement for pure gasoline would decrease to 758,000 barrels per year. Conversely, were E20 to be authorized, 168,000 barrels of ethanol per day would be required, as explained by Juan José Vidal Amaro, Undersecretary for Hydrocarbons at the Ministry of Energy (SENER). If ethanol production in Mexico were intensified based on sugarcane—utilizing the entire national harvest of 55 million tons—approximately 70,000 barrels of ethanol could be produced daily. https://expansion.mx/empresas/2026/04/16/mexico-requerira-mas-barriles-etanol-si-aprueba-su-uso-al-10
PuriFire Energy has signed a Letter of Intent with X-Press Feeders for the supply of up to 15,000 tonnes of bio-methanol per year. This represents a significant step forward in scaling up bio-methanol for the global shipping industry. As the world’s largest independent feeder carrier, X-Press Feeders demonstrates that bio-methanol is not merely a future experiment, but a solution available today. Together, the two partners will explore the supply of 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes of bio-methanol annually from PuriFire’s planned facilities, as well as drive forward the joint development of port-based production sites in the UK and Europe. By linking X-Press Feeders’ fleet-wide demand with PuriFire’s decentralized production model, the collaboration aims to create a vertically integrated fuel supply chain that can be replicated at other key port locations. https://bunkermarket.com/purifire-energy-x-press-feeders-bio-methanol-deal/
Foamlab B.V., a spin-off from Delft University of Technology, has secured a funding round from a consortium including ICOS Capital, Value Factory Ventures, DOEN Ventures, the Capricorn Industrial Biotech Fund, and the TTT Green Tech Fund (managed by SHIFT Invest). This investment enables the company to construct a pilot plant, scale up production, and accelerate the commercial launch of its bio-based foams. https://www.icoscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-21-press-release-funding.pdf
A U.S. lobbyist representing an ethanol company was caught offering $100 in cash per person to attend the rally that Vice President JD Vance held in Des Moines last week. The offer, which was circulated via text message, also included a $25 referral bonus for each person who attended the rally. In response to the article, *Raw Story* reports that the lobbyist told *Iowa Starting Line* that he had done this in his own free time to give “young people” the opportunity to attend. https://thenerdstash.com/iowa-lobbyist-sparks-backlash-after-alleged-cash-incentives-to-boost-jd-vance-rally-crowd-in-this-economy/
An India-based company announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for project development in the fields of biofuels and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), aiming to advance a new generation of projects for converting biomass into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in India. Under the terms of the MOU, the companies will plan and design scalable facilities for converting biomass into SAF, utilizing domestic agricultural residues as feedstock. This collaboration integrates Varhad’s operational gasification platform—which already produces syngas and biochar from agricultural residues—with Velocys’ proven Fischer-Tropsch (FT) technology, thereby enabling a direct and efficient pathway from biomass to SAF. The initial projects will establish a scalable “hub-and-spoke” model for SAF production in India. https://velocys.com/category/uncategorised/